Why Arguing About Keynesian Economics is Dumb

Filed under: Politics — one October 12, 2011 @ 8:24 pm

I'm not going to try and give anyone a history lesson here.  I want to keep this simple, because it's incredibly important that as many people as possible understand this.

If you're like most people, you've probably heard people saying bad things about something called "Keynesian Economics", but you're not quite sure what it is.  You just know it has something to do with communism and the devil. Well, it's actually rather easy to explain, and I'd like to explain it to you so the next time someone says how evil it is, you can understand exactly how smart they are for hating it.

At its core, Keynesian economics focuses on something called a "General Glut". That's a fancy theory that someone invented to say: What if an economy wasn't growing as fast as it should because businesses are making the wrong decisions? Obviously this is silly, because the free market always makes the right decisions, but in the olden times economists argued about whether a "General Glut" could ever really happen.  

A man named John Maynard Keynes said that it definitely could happen, specifically if businesses were afraid to hire employees because sales figures were low.  Keynes said that if businesses stopped hiring for long enough, and unemployment got high enough that a lot of people didn't have jobs and couldn't afford to buy things, this might create a situation where the economy basically comes almost to a halt and grows much, much slower than it should.

Even though this was a silly idea that could obviously never happen, Keynes decided to think about what the solution would be, just in case it ever did. He realized that economies need to be driven by demand.  In other words, someone needs to buy things.  If businesses weren't spending money because they were afraid, and people weren't spending money because they didn't have any, then the only one left who could buy things was the government.

Yes, you heard that correctly.  He thought that the only way to get out of a general glut was for the government to spend money.  As silly as this seems, his ideas were popularized during the Great Depression.  When the Great Depression first struck, Herbert Hoover did the smart thing and cut government spending.  Unfortunately, for some reason the economy just got worse.  When FDR came into office, his advisors wisely recommended he cut spending even more.  He followed their advice, but stubbornly the economy refused to recover.

Then FDR was introduced to the "alternative medicine" of Keynesian Economics. Unfortunately, when he followed Keynes' advice to spend large amounts of taxpayer money, the economy rebounded.  This made people think that Keynes might be right. The real truth is that the economic recovery coincided with the country's entry into World War II.  While Keynesian Economists patted themselves on the back, telling themselves that Keynes was right and that Government Spending really can save the economy, the truth was that the economy was saved by the war because of all of the jobs creating building the tanks and airplanes the government was buying.

Worst of all, the Keynesian Economists tried to claim that when the government bought tanks and airplanes, that was just another example of Keynesian Economics creating jobs and kickstarting the economy.   This sounds reasonable, but keep in mind those people are Keynsian Economists so they obviously don't know what they are talking about.

The fatal flaw with both Keynesian and Classical Economic models is they believe the worker is the center of the economy.  Classical Economists value goods based on the cost of the labor to produce them.  Keynsian Economists believe the economy is driven by demand.  The truth is that the economy is driven by the job creators. Saying an economy is driven by the value of goods sold, or by the people buying the goods is like saying a business needs customers and workers.  But that obviously isn't true, because if businesses couldn't exist without customers or workers then we wouldn't need to cut taxes for job creators and loosen regulations.

Another interesting point proving this is that Republicans have been laser-focused on the economy all year, and especially during the primary debates, yet no one has spoken at all about education.  They say they are creating plans for the U.S. to create new jobs and take jobs back from overseas, but clearly they do not see education as important to achieving this goal.  This is because they understand that the economy is driven by job-creators and not by workers or by demand, and certainly not by government spending.

On the communist side of the coin, Obama's so-called jobs plan includes funding for schools because he thinks it is important that Americans are educated and qualified for the high paying tech jobs that are constantly being created.  This ties everything together:  Government spending, educating the workforce, even raising taxes on job-creators.  Obama obviously believes in Keynesian Economics, and doesn't respect the central role of job-creators in the economy.  

If you listen to Obama you might come away thinking that Europe, the Middle-East, and even China had functioning economies for thousands of years primarily based around small businesses and driven by workers, demand, and even a fair amount of government spending.  If you listen to Liberals you might think that it is crazy to put big businesses on a pedestal as "job creators" and pray to them, begging they create more jobs.  The problem in either case is that you're thinking.  Don't think at all, and then you'll realize Keynsian Economics doesn't make the slightest bit of sense.

 

AUTHOR'S NOTE:  If you're confused after reading this, then I apologize.  I have to admit, that was somewhat intentional.  Think about things, google them, and don't fall into the trap of letting yourself believe someone else's opinion without really understanding it. If you took this post at face value, I would ask you give it another read-through.

 

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Why Job Creators Fail at Creating Jobs

Filed under: Politics — one September 24, 2011 @ 9:52 am

I am increasingly frustrated by the amount of misinformation that pervades the airwaves and how easily people take it at face value.  There are a lot of really good articles out there, but I am guessing either the right people aren't reading them, or they are dismissing their content out of hand because they don't want to believe the ideas they have been circulating might actually be wrong.

Well, we're all wrong sometimes, and when that happens it is better to figure it out sooner rather than later, at least from the perspective of how much damage is caused. 

Here is an interesting fact from recent history (from an excellent article), worth beginning this discussion with:

Belgium, currently in a government shutdown, has done absolutely nothing any of the other western countries have done: No spending cuts, no austerity measures.  Their government spending has gone neither up nor down, and yet in the past quarter their economy grew by more than double that of the UK, US, Germany & France.  Germany and France in particular may not have cashflow problems but their economies are growing at a slower rate than the US, which should throw up red flags to anyone pointing to them as a model we should be following.

INCOME GAP

The other half of the problem is the income gap.  In the US, we have the highest gap between the wealthy and the middle class since the great depression.  More than 16% of Americans now live below the poverty line, and while Fox News likes to point out that 99% of these people own refrigerators, 80% of them have microwaves, and 50% of them have air conditioners, I hardly think these are good barometers.  In the end, if people can't afford to buy a new car, a new computer, go out to dinner, go to the movies, new clothes, new shoes, new toys for their kids, these are things that slow down the economy.

TAXES

Even Reagan raised taxes a number of times during his presidency, but despite his tax cuts, the economy grew under Reagan due to his massive deficit spending.  I don't know how this has become such a blind spot.  Clinton managed to balance the budget by cutting some programs but he also raised taxes to keep some of the programs, and the economy did even better than it did under Reagan and Bush.  

Then W came along and went very Reagan-esque in his economic approach except he lowered taxes even more aggressively and increased spending even more dramaticaly–but that spending was primarily military in nature (as opposed to roads, bridges, etc).  This should have opened people's eyes to the ultimate destination such policies will take us too, especially now that we've had an extra four years of them since Obama has been unable or unwilling to reverse any of Bush's economic policies.  

We have had the lowest taxes in half a century, and most of the new government spending has gone directly into the pockets of large corporations that were already doing quite well.  It has not created new jobs, certainly not in the way road construction would have.  Criticize government inefficiency as you will, but government jobs are preferable to no jobs.  In an economy there are only three groups that spend money to get things moving:  People, Businesses, and the Government.  If people have no money and businesses have no customers, there is only one group left that can possibly break the stalemate.

BIG PICTURE

Think of this: If the "Job Creators" get their taxes lowered, the poor and middle class will have even less money.  This means businesses will have fewer customers, and therefore continue laying people off rather than creating new jobs.  In short: in this scenario money tends to stay where it is and the economy comes to a halt (but the wealthy get to hold onto the money they currently have).  On the other hand, raising taxes on "Job Creators" lowers the burden on the poor and middle class, who then have money to spend.  They choose where they want to spend that money, which drives the free market by rewarding better companies and starving inadequate ones of cash.

Regular people drive the free market–customers drive the market, not businesses.  Businesses are supposed to respond to demand, and those that do this well are rewarded, that is how the free market is supposed to work.  Instead it has been twisted and the current paradigm insists we allow business owners to keep as much of their cash as possible so they can drive the economy.  Businesses do not drive the economy, they never have.

HISTORY IS USUALLY RIGHT, IF IT HASN'T BEEN RE-WRITTEN

In the aftermath of the great depression Herbert Hoover cut government spending and catered to "job creators" in the hopes that they would create jobs.  They didn't, they just pocketed their extra cash and for the average person things got worse.  FDR came into office and his advisors gave him similar advice, which he followed and things continued to get worse.  He then decided to follow some of the lesser voices and go the complete opposite route:  New Deal + targeted spending.  

This is a critical point in our history and in economics in general, how is it lost on today's Americans?  Because WWII also helped the economy and the right-wing cleverly gave WWII all of the credit and claimed FDR's policies as ineffective.  Even today, conservatives claim Clinton didn't do anything for the economy, that it was just the .COM Bubble, and poor W was stuck cleaning up the mess.  One look at the DJIA 20 year graph disproves this, but people don't look.

CAPITALISM INVIOLATE

So we are stuck in a world where an ever-growing number of people believe that if you give rich people enough money, they will give some of it back.  The reality is, maybe they do, maybe they don't, maybe they spend it overseas.  Only one thing is for certain.  Give that money instead to a family that is living in or on the edge of poverty and we can be very well assured not only will every penny be spent, but it will be spent locally.  

This isn't "re-distribution of wealth" on a grand scale.  A more apt analogy would be giving someone a handicap in Golf, although even that is really too strong to properly describe what is really going on.  All that is really happening is making sure the people with the least money can still live in relative comfort, which allows them to contribute to the economy, which in turn benefits true capitalists who have decided to wage battle in the free market to supply better products/services than their competition.  NOT providing that handicap because our government wants to make sure businesses can hold onto their money is guaranteed to destroy the economy.  

In a time and place where the middle class was strong and the level of poverty was low, this might not be the case, but it is certainly the case now.

 

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People Who Think Rich Iott is a Nazi are Nazis

Filed under: Politics — one October 12, 2010 @ 8:08 pm

I want to start off by making my political leanings clear: I think both parties are destroying this country so severely that if I told my idealistic High School Self how bad things have gotten, young-me would never have believed it. Over the years I have changed, however, from a staunch Republican to someone who believes that putting Republicans into power will fast-track this country into the next Great Depression and start a class war. In the current equation I see Democrats as the slightly-lesser of two really terrible evils.

But when I see articles like this one suggesting Rich Iott is an anti-semite and Nazi sympathizer because he dresses in a Waffen S.S. uniform during WWII re-enactments, I really want to throw up. People do Civil War re-enactments all the time. Getting dressed up in a Confederate uniform for the purposes of re-enacting a battle does not make you a Confederate sympathizer or a racist. We don’t punish actors who play Nazis in the movies.

Rich Iott is nothing more than a history geek. Suggesting a photo of him wearing a Nazi uniform from a WWII re-enactment says anything at all about his political or social leanings is as ridiculous as saying we should be suspicious that the Governor of California might actually be a time traveling cyborg who has come back from the future to murder Sarah Connor. It’s as ridiculous as saying the people who are calling Rich Iott a Nazi, are themselves Nazis, so I might as well say that.

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